Why Is Google Losing Market Share In The EU? via @sejournal, @Kevin_Indig

Most marketers don’t recognize that Google has been losing hunt marketplace stock successful EU countries.

Image Credit: Kevin Indig

The driblet successful marketplace stock comes astatine a clip erstwhile Google’s concern is nether siege:

• The DoJ recommended separating Google from Chrome and Android amid a suit against Alphabet. (I summarized the suit and imaginable outcomes successful Monopoly.)
• The Justice Department runs a abstracted suit against Google’s advertizing business.
• Canada conscionable sued Google implicit anti-competitive practices successful online ads.
• ChatGPT, Perplexity & Co are increasing caput and marketplace share. (I covered the meteoric emergence of ChatGPT successful ChatGPT Search.)
• Google faces dense regularisation successful the EU from the DMA (Digital Marketing Act), which I wrote astir successful 2 Internets.

So, the question is two-fold: How overmuch does the driblet successful marketplace stock matter, and what is the driver?

The abbreviated reply is that the driblet matters much than Alphabet mightiness similar to admit.

It gives oxygen to competitors and weakens the assemblage successful the combat against outer agents. Google’s gross is inactive strong, but advertizing marketplace stock is declining.

A premix of regulation, competitors, and antagonistic sentiment toward Google look liable for the drop.

The accusation is that marketers progressively request to way and optimize for much hunt engines, but a much fragmented playing tract could besides beryllium an accidental for much referral postulation from hunt engines to websites.

What Is Going On With Google?

Image Credit: Kevin Indig

Google’s marketplace stock implicit the past 10 years dipped by -5.6 pp (percentage points) successful France and -3.3 pp successful Germany.

StatCounter has ne'er recorded specified a debased stock since measuring information successful January 2009.

France and Germany are not the lone ones. Most EU countries saw Google’s marketplace stock drip successful the past 5 years (mobile):

• Austria: -4.1 pp.
• Poland: -3.1 pp.
• Switzerland: -2.3 pp.
• Netherlands: -2.1 pp.
• Denmark: -1.5 pp.

Zooming further successful besides doesn’t alteration things. Google marketplace stock implicit the past 12 months (mobile):

• France: -4.6 pp.
• Austria: -3.2 pp.
• Poland: -2.4 pp.
• Germany: -2.1 pp.
• Switzerland: -1.3 pp.
• Netherlands: -1.0 pp.
• Denmark: -1.0 pp.

What’s going on? The representation becomes clearer erstwhile we look astatine erstwhile the inclination changes. There are 2 inflection points: November 2018 and April 2024.

Image Credit: Kevin Indig

The information shows a displacement distant from Google starting astir April, a period aft Android and Apple introduced prime screens for browsers and hunt engines.

In different words, Google tin nary longer beryllium the default hunt motor connected mobile and desktop devices. We’re starting to spot the results.

However, not each countries spot a dip. Why?

Why Are Some Countries Flat?

Google’s marketplace stock isn’t down successful each EU country, e.g.:

• Portugal.
• Spain.
• Italy.
• Ireland.

How come? These countries are portion of Europe, and users spot a prime screen.

The reply is devices. The countries listed supra mislaid marketplace stock connected desktop but not mobile.

Image Credit: Kevin Indig

This happens everyplace successful the EU. Over the past 5 years, Google mislaid -2.1% marketplace stock connected mobile compared to -10% connected desktop successful the EU.

Why?

A large portion of the crushed is the exclusive organisation statement with Apple.

Windows is the ascendant desktop operating system, with +75% successful the EU, mostly due to the fact that of its domination successful firm computing. MacOS has lone 15.1%.

While Android (Google’s operating system) besides has the bulk marketplace stock connected mobile with 66.5%, Apple’s iOS has 33%.

And since Google is the default hunt motor connected Apple devices by paying a $20 cardinal fee, its presumption is much coagulated successful the EU connected mobile – until the DMA forced prime screens successful March.

Image Credit: Kevin Indig

But what astir countries that amusement a diminution successful Google’s marketplace stock earlier March? Way before!

Why Does The Dip Start Earlier In Some Countries?

Image Credit: Kevin Indig

Google mislaid marketplace stock successful countries similar Germany and Portugal arsenic aboriginal arsenic November 2018. So, determination indispensable beryllium thing other going connected too prime screens and device-specific dynamics.

Two things happened successful 2018: First, GDPR, the European information extortion law, came into effect successful May 2018. Second, the EU fined Alphabet €4.34 cardinal for antitrust violations related to Android’s marketplace dominance.

Both events didn’t straight alteration Google’s marketplace stock but acceptable disconnected a play of Google mistrust that gave abstraction to smaller competitors similar DuckDuckGo and Bing.

Europeans are overmuch much privacy-sensitive, which means regulatory fines and privateness laws power user behaviour overmuch much than the U.S.

For example, the European privateness hunt motor StartPage gets 56% of searches from the EU and 21% from the U.S.

Users sojourn Google little due to the fact that of privateness concerns. France declared not to usage Google arsenic a default hunt motor for immoderate ministries successful November 2018.

Choice screens and nationalist cognition are the biggest drivers down Google’s decline. Google sends little referral postulation to websites. So, what is the effect?

Who Wins What Google Loses?

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The biggest victor of Google’s diminution is Bing. The ever-second hunt motor is the biggest beneficiary of Google’s decline.

It’s precise imaginable that ChatGPT and its adjacent affiliation with Microsoft gave its hunt motor a bigger boost successful Europe than primitively assumed, but Bing is besides the 2nd prime successful cons’ minds.

Now, these numbers are inactive peanuts, and hunt engines similar DuckDuckGo, Ecosia, and QWANT licence hunt results from Bing and Google. So, you could accidental that Google and Bing win, aft all.

However, Ecosia and QWANT are moving connected a associated web scale to go autarkic from different hunt engines.

How overmuch longer until DuckDuckGo and others denote their ain scale arsenic well? When the alpha gets weaker, the smaller animals odor the opportunity.

Despite the diminution successful marketplace share, Google’s hunt gross is inactive increasing impressively accelerated astatine its scale. Why?

1. Market stock doesn’t person to correlate with hunt measurement oregon monetizable queries.
2. There are much mobile than desktop searches, and mobile searches driblet to a smaller degree.
3. Google inactive dominates successful different markets – the EU mightiness not beryllium capable to enactment a dent into Google’s gross that the institution couldn’t compensate.
4. Google has been much assertive successful hunt monetization than the driblet successful marketplace share.

Relative advertisement gross growth, which is predicted to autumn beneath 50% adjacent year, could beryllium a amended indicator than implicit growth.

I besides privation to constituent retired a caveat successful the data: StatCounter gathers information by measuring referral postulation connected 1.5 cardinal sites. There is simply a accidental that Google sending retired little postulation to websites and keeping it to themselves affects the numbers.

What Are The Implications?

Google’s dropping marketplace stock successful the EU, combined with imaginable antitrust remedies (like a forced extremity to the organisation statement with Apple) and much competition, volition apt fragment Search further.

In different words, we mightiness optimize for much hunt engines (again). Most of them mightiness relation likewise successful ranking but mightiness request tract owners to instrumentality dedicated indexing actions, specified arsenic integrating with Bing’s IndexNOW.

We’ve already dusted disconnected our Bing Webmaster Tools erstwhile it turned retired ChatGPT is utilizing Bing results for its hunt feature. What’s next? Perplexity webmaster tools? Boosted by increasing marketplace share, SEO professionals should wage much attraction to Bing.

Other hunt engines don’t person webmaster tools yet – to my surprise. What amended mode to foster a narration with tract owners than a portal? But with progressively autarkic indices, that could go a world soon.

Ironically, the monopoly suit against Google comes conscionable arsenic the institution gets much competition. A 1% marketplace stock of a elephantine similar Alphabet tin make a unicorn with $1.75 cardinal successful ARR.

Browsers play a captious relation successful the hunt motor wars. The DoJ is pushing for Chrome to divest from Google, and OpenAI is moving connected its ain browser.

In my opinion, OpenAI should bargain Arc. Either way, browsers are the eventual net idiosyncratic interface and connection much idiosyncratic accusation than hunt engines tin chew.

I privation to beryllium wide that I don’t deliberation Google is doomed to fail. Google has each the ingredients to travel retired connected apical successful the “new AI world.” The lone crushed it volition neglect is by lasting successful its ain way.

France is ditching Google to reclaim its online independence

OpenAI Considers Taking connected Google With Browser

Featured Image: Paulo Bobita/Search Engine Journal