Keyword Difficulty: How to Estimate Your Chances to Rank

It’s easy to find keywords that tin bring tons of postulation to your website. What’s harder is to foretell your chances of ranking for them.

To assistance lick this problem, SEO tools similar Ahrefs springiness keywords a “difficulty” people from 0 to 100.

But the information is that these scores aren’t foolproof.

So successful this post, I’m going to outline the benefits and shortcomings of the Keyword Difficulty metric, arsenic good arsenic interruption down what different things nonrecreational SEOs look astatine erstwhile estimating their chances to fertile for a fixed keyword.

What is keyword difficulty?

Keyword Difficulty (KD) is an SEO metric that estimates however hard it would beryllium to fertile connected the archetypal leafage of Google for a fixed keyword. It is measured connected a standard from 0 to 100, with the second being the hardest to rank for.

However, erstwhile galore SEO professionals usage the word “keyword difficulty,” they’re referring to the broader conception of ranking difficulty—not a peculiar metric successful a peculiar SEO tool.

Keyword trouble arsenic a metric

Almost each keyword probe instrumentality has a keyword trouble score. These tools each usage the aforesaid 0-100 scale, but each 1 calculates it differently.

If you cheque the keyword trouble of the aforesaid keywords successful antithetic SEO tools, the numbers volition alteration rather substantially:

That is wherefore it is important to recognize however precisely the ranking trouble is calculated by your SEO instrumentality of choice. Only past tin you marque informed decisions based on it.

Here astatine Ahrefs, we usage a elemental method for calculating KD. We propulsion the apical 10 ranking pages for your keyword and look up however galore websites nexus to each of them. The much links the top-ranking pages for your keyword have, the higher its KD score. Very elemental and precise actionable.

Using much factors for calculating Keyword Difficulty

Many SEOs who usage Ahrefs person been asking america to see much factors erstwhile calculating our KD metric:

• Domain Rating
• Internal links
• Content length
• Relevancy
• Etc

Well, let’s accidental we decided to see Domain Rating (DR) successful our calculation. Here’s what happens if we instrumentality 2 hypothetical keywords:

• Keyword #1 – Has pages from DR 80+ websites ranking successful the apical 10, but nary has immoderate backlinks
• Keyword #2 – Has pages from DR <40 websites successful the apical 10, but each of them has 40+ backlinks

Which of these keywords should person a higher KD? And by how much?

If you inquire a fewer twelve SEOs to manually people these 2 keywords connected a standard from 0 to 100, their estimates volition beryllium precise different. That’s due to the fact that each SEO nonrecreational volition administer the “weights” of DR and page-level backlinks otherwise erstwhile blending them into a azygous KD score.

So by adding conscionable 1 further adaptable (DR), we’re causing a large woody of contention to the calculation of KD and making it rather unintuitive.

Hopefully, that explains wherefore we decided to support our KD metric ace elemental and lone usage the backlinks of the top-ranking pages to cipher it.

This way, you cognize precisely what you’re looking astatine erstwhile applying a KD filter to your database of keywords. It gives you a straightforward benchmark of however galore backlinks the top-ranking pages for each keyword have:

• KD 0-5 – Top-ranking pages hardly person immoderate backlinks
• KD ~50 – Top-ranking pages person a mates of 100 backlinks
• KD 90+ – Top-ranking pages person thousands of backlinks

But backlinks aren’t the lone ranking factor. If you privation to decently gauge your chances of ranking for a fixed keyword, you request to spell further and bash a much thorough investigation of the SERP.

Speaking of which…

Keyword trouble arsenic a concept

Nobody knows precisely however Google ranks pages. But we bash cognize the main things that substance for ranking well. And by analyzing those “main things,” SEOs tin get a beauteous bully thought of what it takes to fertile connected Google for a fixed keyword.

So here’s however they do it.

1. Figure retired however galore backlinks you’ll need

Backlinks enactment arsenic votes, which archer Google that a fixed leafage is much invaluable than immoderate different leafage connected the aforesaid topic. So, as a wide rule, if you privation to fertile successful the apical 10 hunt results for a fixed keyword, you’ll person to get arsenic galore backlinks arsenic the existent top-ranking pages person (if not more).

In Ahrefs’ Keywords Explorer, we really person a substance hint close nether our KD people that tells you an approximate fig of backlinks you’ll need:

Two important caveats here:

1. The hint says “to fertile successful the apical 10,” which means that getting arsenic galore (or more) backlinks arsenic your competitors won’t warrant that you’ll fertile #1. But there’s a precise bully accidental that you’ll fertile determination successful the top 10.
2. The sheer quantity of backlinks tin often beryllium misleading due to the fact that immoderate backlinks formed a stronger ballot than others. So this fig is simply an estimation.

To decently estimation the spot of the backlink profiles of the top-ranking pages, you’ll person to reappraisal each their backlinks manually, i.e., bash a backlink audit of these pages.

In Keywords Explorer, we’ve created a useful shortcut for this, since each fig successful the “SERP Overview” links to its respective backlink study successful Ahrefs’ Site Explorer:

2. Review the “authority” of your competitors

Many SEOs judge that Google often gives penchant to pages that beryllium to big, fashionable websites. So if determination are tons of these connected a SERP, they urge you to enactment away—unless your website is conscionable arsenic large and famous.

And portion we don’t needfully hold with specified an assessment, we bash deliberation it whitethorn beryllium rather utile to peek astatine however authoritative the top-ranking websites are.

Do you wage attraction to Domain Rating (or immoderate different “website authority” metric) erstwhile analysing your chances to fertile for a fixed keyword?

Google itself has consistently denied that it uses immoderate signifier of sitewide authorization metric successful its ranking algorithm. But I tin deliberation of astatine slightest 2 ways however a precocious website authorization tin indirectly contribute toward a higher ranking connected Google:

A. Internal links

High DR means that a fixed website has tons of beardown pages with precocious authority. And the leafage that you spot ranking connected Google whitethorn beryllium receiving tons of “link juice” from specified pages, making it a high-authority leafage excessively (even successful the lack of backlinks from different websites).

B. Familiar brand

When presented with a database of hunt results, galore radical volition similar to click connected the websites that are acquainted to them. Google is allegedly tracking immoderate “behavioral factors” to amended recognize if radical were satisfied with the hunt results. And that tin pb to “familiar websites” getting a ranking penchant due to the fact that that is what searchers privation to get.

3. Investigate the hunt intent

Your quality to code the hunt intent is of utmost value for ranking good connected Google. In lawsuit you’re unfamiliar with the term, hunt intent is fundamentally the anticipation that searchers have. Google’s extremity is to fulfill people’s expectations erstwhile they execute a search.

Many marketers (including our ain Joshua Hardwick) thin to radical each searches into 4 chiseled hunt intent buckets: informational, navigational, transactional, and commercial.

But I’m not a large instrumentality of that approach.

Let maine springiness an example. Instead of trying to fig retired if the hunt query “backlink checker” is informational, navigational, oregon transactional (and what that means for your leafage anyway), it is overmuch much productive to reappraisal the existent top-ranking pages for that keyword and analyse what searchers get from them.

As you tin archer from the screenshot above, each the top-ranking pages for the keyword “backlink checker” are escaped online tools. So the hunt intent of this keyword is “a escaped online instrumentality to cheque backlinks.”

Thus, if you effort to people this keyword with a blog nonfiction oregon a landing page, it won’t work.

I cognize this for a information due to the fact that we really tried it.

Above is the graph of integrated hunt postulation to our backlink checker page.

Before the extremity of 2019, it was conscionable a elemental landing leafage explaining that Ahrefs has a backlink checker instrumentality and offering radical to motion up for our paid trial. No substance however overmuch we optimized that page, it ne'er ranked higher than #8 for that keyword.

Then we studied the pages that were outranking america and realized that each of them were escaped online tools. And arsenic soon arsenic we converted our landing leafage into a escaped tool, it changeable up to #1 for the keyword “backlink checker” and started ranking precocious for galore different applicable keywords.

So alternatively of trying to determine if the hunt intent of your keyword is “transactional” oregon “informational,” conscionable browse the top-ranking pages and fig retired what precisely radical expect to get from it.

4. Gauge the prime of content

The celebrated Skyscraper technique has led tons of contented marketers astray by suggesting that a longer and much elaborate nonfiction equals a amended article.

But conscionable making your nonfiction longer doesn’t needfully marque it better. A amended nonfiction is 1 that provides much worth successful little clip (and without boring you to death).

So present are immoderate pointers that volition assistance you gauge the prime of contented that already ranks astatine the apical for your people keyword:

1. Does it supply close and up-to-date information?
2. Is it written by a taxable substance expert?
3. Does it incorporate unsocial information?
4. Is it well-written?
5. Is it decently formatted?
6. Is it well-designed?

The archetypal 3 are the astir important ones. Google wants to supply its users with close accusation that comes from credible sources. We cognize that for a information due to the fact that the latest variation of its Search Quality Rater Guidelines has tons of absorption connected the conception called E-A-T, which stands for expertise, authoritativeness, and trustworthiness.

So alternatively of making your pages longer than those of your competitors, effort investing in E-A-T.

What is simply a bully Keyword Difficulty to target?

As with galore things successful SEO, the reply is it depends:

• On the authorization of your website.
• On your credibility successful a given space.
• On your quality to get backlinks.
• On whether you person the quality and/or resources to cater to hunt intent.
• Etc.

A bully workout that whitethorn assistance you get utilized to Ahrefs’ KD metric is to look up the KD scores of the keywords that your website is already ranking for.

You tin bash this by entering your website into Ahrefs’ Site Explorer and visiting the Organic keywords report:

This gives you a bully benchmark. But it’s by nary means a substitute for the process I’ve outlined above. If you privation to accurately estimation your chances of ranking for a fixed keyword, you should thoroughly survey the top-ranking pages and origin successful your ain skills and resources.

And delight don’t shy distant from targeting high-KD keywords. When it comes to galore of the KD 70+ keywords that we fertile for today, it took america 4 to 5 rewrites, tons of promotion, and galore years of patience to get there. So the sooner you “attack” a high-KD keyword that you truly privation to fertile for, the sooner you’ll get there.

Final thoughts

It would beryllium rather awesome to person a keyword trouble metric that could accurately foretell your chances of ranking for a fixed keyword. But arsenic you tin astir apt archer by now, specified a metric doesn’t exist.

So the lone mode for you to marque the close SEO bets is by thoroughly studying the hunt results for the keywords that you privation to rank for.

I anticipation the process I’ve outlined supra is adjuvant for you. And if you person immoderate further questions, consciousness escaped to ping maine on Twitter.